Thursday, 16 November 2017

German economic data suggested ECB’s tightening to arrive soon, buy EUR/USD?
There is no visible resistance between the current level of EUR/USD and 1.20, suggesting the recent gains in euro could continue.
  • Yesterday’s data showed Germany’s flash GDP estimate climbed at the pace of 0.8% in the third quarter, exceeding earlier economists’ expectation of 0.6%. The data bolstered the case for the European Central Bank to begin tightening monetary policy next year.

  • On the other side, dollar is struggling with its domestic political issue. Little visible progress on the US tax reform package. With the tax reform yet to evolve into legislation, markets have little appetite to build fresh dollar-buying positions.

  • On the technical side, EUR/USD has broken the key resistance level in past two years, suggesting the sentiment in euro has been turning bullish.

  • We expect EUR/USD to revisit 1.20 within this month.
 eurusd-d1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Euro Zone may report sound economic data this week, buy EUR/USD?
Central bankers’ panel talk will be highly watched
Top four global central bankers, including ECB Mario Draghi, Fed Janet Yellen, BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda and BOE Mark Carney will form a panel on Tuesday at an ECB-hosted conference in Frankfurt. The topic will be “challenges and opportunities of central bank communication.” What global investors will certainly focus on: who is the most hawkish and who is the most dovish.
Curve-flattening on both US and Euro Zone market, but more markedly in the United States, suggested investors have doubts over the future path of inflation and may be starting to price in a downturn just as the global economy picked up speed. Since the Fed began raising rates in 2015, the difference between 2/10-year US yields have shrunk to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, now at 67 basis points. This also reflected uncertainty about the passage of a Republican-sponsored bill to cut US taxes, which has hauled down longer-term projections of inflation while expectations for upcoming rate increases pushed short-term yields higher. Curve-flattening typically signal a muted outlook for both growth and inflation. The trend suggested investors see a risk in the Fed’s current monetary tightening cycle to slow the world’s biggest economy. Also, flatter curve makes lending less profitable, posing a risk to the banking sector. With crisis-era policies still largely in place, how to remove the stimulus will be a big difficulty for the Fed. Markets expectation of Fed to continue to tighten gradually has been preserved by US President Trump’s decision to appoint Jerome Powell. With a number of Fed vacancies to be filled, FOMC could find it tough to massively shift Yellen’s current policy approach.
On the ECB side, what it focused most is the area’s potential future price growth. The hunt for returns drove the German yield curve to its flattest in two months. The ECB’s decision last month to extend its asset purchase programme and pledged to keep rates at record lows until QE ended have pushed bond yields across the bloc to multi-month lows. However, euro zone economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade this year. We think the flash estimate of third-quarter GDP in the euro area tomorrow will be 0.6% and October’s inflation reading on Thursday will further limit the ECB’s room to extend its ultra-loose monetary policy. We expect ECB to start to lean towards tightening bias as early as January next year.

Our Picks
EUR/USD – Slightly bullish.
This pair may rise towards 1.1730 amid possible sound economic data.
  eurusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

USD/JPY – Slightly bearish.
This pair may drop towards 112.80 amid delay in Trump’s tax reform.
  usdjpy-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAU/USD (Gold) – Slightly bullish.
We expect price to rise towards 1283 this week.
  xauusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

Top News This Week (GMT+8 time zone)
Euro Zone: flash GDP q/q. Tuesday 14th November, 6pm.
We expect figures to come in at 0.6% (previous figure was 0.6%).
Euro Zone: Final CPI. Thursday 16th November, 6pm.
We expect figures to come in at 1.5% (previous figure was 1.4%).

What does it take to be successful?
Let me ask that question more specifically. What does it take to attain mastery in a subject? Any subject.
In his book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell explores why some people succeed, living remarkably productive and impactful lives, while so many more never reach their potential.
Challenging our cherished belief of the "self-made man," he makes the democratic assertion that superstars don't arise out of nowhere, propelled by genius and talent: "they are invariably the beneficiaries of hidden advantages and extraordinary opportunities and cultural legacies that allow them to learn and work hard and make sense of the world in ways others cannot."
A key point in his book is that Malcolm asserts the fact that "Mastery" in any subject takes about 10,000 hours to attain.
As I ponder more on this question, I'm convinced that Mastery is modeled upon the evolutionary phases of Learning, Earning and Creating. Mastery in any aspect of life hinges upon these 3 phases.
Lets delve deeper on this subject and take a look at 4 people who have attained mastery in their chosen fields:
1) Food
2) Sports
3) Arts/Entertainment
4) Business

Food

Famed legendary head chef of the El Bulli restaurant in Spain, Ferran Adria is considered one of the best chefs in the world and tops the European Restaurant Ranking.
Under his leadership, El Bulli has attained 3 Michelin Stars and was voted the best restaurant in the world in 2006, 2007 and 2008. El Bulli is famous for being the ultimate pilgrimage site for foodies, and a reservation that is nearly impossible to obtain.
 
image1.jpg

Each year El Bulli is open for just six months, and receives more than 2 million requests for only 8,000 seats. Renowned for his spectacular ever-changing 30-course tasting menu, Adria's pioneering culinary techniques have been applauded - and imitated - by top chefs around the globe for the past decade, and he was named one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people of our time.

 

Sports

Roger Federer’s name is synonymous with breaking records. He has won 19 Grand Slam singles titles, more than any other male player in history. He has also spent a total of 302 weeks as World Number 1, including 237 consecutive weeks at the top of the ATP rankings, the most of any player.
image2.jpg
Additionally, Federer was named by Forbes as the highest-earning tennis player off court for nine years straight between 2007 and 2015.

Arts/Entertainment

Michelangelo was the best-documented artist of the 16th century. Two of his best-known works, the Pietà and David, were sculpted before he turned thirty. Michelangelo also created two of the most influential works in fresco in the history of Western art: the scenes from Genesis on the ceiling and The Last Judgment on the altar wall of the Sistine Chapel in Rome.
image3.jpg
In a demonstration of Michelangelo's unique standing, he was the first Western artist whose biography was published while he was alive. In his lifetime he was also often called Il Divino ("The Divine One").
One of the qualities most admired by his contemporaries was his terribilità, a sense of awe-inspiring grandeur, and it was the attempts of subsequent artists to imitate Michelangelo's impassioned and highly personal style that resulted in Mannerism, the next major movement in Western art after the High Renaissance.

 

Business

Sir Richard Branson is an English business magnate, investor and philanthropist. He founded the Virgin Group, which controls more than 400 companies today.
 
image4.jpg
In March 2000, Branson was knighted at Buckingham Palace for "services to entrepreneurship”. In 2002, he was named in the BBC's poll of the 100 Greatest Britons. In March 2017, Forbes listed Branson's estimated net worth at USD5 billion.
So check it out. What do you see as the common thread among all four of them? They would have passed through the phases of Learning, Earning and Creating to attain mastery in their chosen fields.

1) Ferran Adria Learned about being a great chef, Earned millions as a top head chef, and has Createdamazing experiences in "molecular gastronomy" and "culinary foams."
2) Roger Federer Learned about playing great tennis, Earned (and continues to earn) millions from it, and went on to Create consistent results on the ATP tour year after year.
3) Michelangelo Learned about art, Earned his right as the king of the High Renaissance era, and Createdcountless masterpieces thereafter in the areas of sculpture, painting and even poetry.
4) Richard Branson Learned about entrepreneurship at a young age, Earned millions over the years through the Virgin brand and has gone on to Create many business ventures that span across real estate, music, retail and space travel.

A Forex Trader is no different. He or she must pass through the phases of Learning, Earning and Creating to master their financial destiny in the markets.
In the Learning Phase, a trader understands certain principles like Market Structure, Trading Concepts and Trading Platform.
In the Earning Phase, a trader understands the exact keys that will enable them to slice profits off the market. When they should buy, when they should sell and when they should stay out.
In the Creating Phase, a trader has identified the specific steps & rules they need to not only create their trading system, but execute it faithfully so that they generate consistent returns.
So that explains the Circle Of Mastery:
image5.jpg
Many traders make the fatal mistake of abandoning their trading system after a couple of negative results. This is when they get "stuck" and don't push ahead to achieve consistent results.
Here’s the thing, losses are part of the game. No one wins every trade.
No one.
In Forex, you can "win & be wrong" but you can also "lose and be right."
Getting fixated with "ratio of winning trades to losing ones" is a loser's game. Don't go down that path.
Let's focus on "trading right” first. Profits will almost always follow as an after-thought.
The surest way for your account to grow is when you achieve Mastery. The steps, again, are Learning, Earning and Creating. Creating is the all-important phase. This is when habits have been ingrained, and you are now repeating your actions on a consistent basis to generate significant results.
When you are at this stage, here's the bonus - you would have mastered yourself.
This is when you are truly, an unstoppable human being.

“The epitome of success is mastery. The essence of mastery is creation.” -Mario Singh

Monday, 30 October 2017

ECB extended QE, Sell EUR/USD at rally?
ECB will extend its monetary stimulus program until September of 2018
ECB decided last week to cut the level of the monthly bond purchases. The purchases will fall to 30 billion euros from the current level of 60 billion euros, starting in January 2018. The central bank said it would extend its monetary stimulus program until September next year. Failing to provide a firm end-date was considered as dovish, and Draghi told reporters on Thursday the decision wasn't unanimous. EUR/USD fell after the ECB meeting.
Still, ECB noted if financial conditions or economic outlook changes, its monetary policy will adapt to the new environment. ECB will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the current QE for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases. This implied its balance sheet will continue to expand and increase for some time after next September.
According to past experience from the Fed, it only raised the policy rate 12 months after it ceased the QE programme. If that is the guideline for ECB, it may only raise its benchmark policy rates such as refinancing rate, deposit rate and marginal lending rate in late 2019. The risk is ECB lifting key interest rates earlier for economic reasons, but we do not foresee the economic and inflation conditions to improve substantially next year. Swap markets told similar story, euro zone overnight swaps showed only a 30% probability of a 10bps lift in the ECB deposit rate by the end of next year.
Announcing an exit from monetary stimulus looks difficult for the ECB, as euro zone’s inflation remained below its target of 2%.

PBOC’s determination on deleveraging may limit Aussie’s strength
PBOC injected 63-day money into the financial system for the first time, intensifying a deleveraging drive by increasing the funding costs. It offered 50 billion yuan of 2.9% 63-day reverse repo through open market operations (OMO) last week.
For commercial banks, the longer-term funds mean they are more expensive, but these funds can safeguard against any sudden liquidity squeezes as fiscal deposits always rise during this period. Recently, China money markets have been under pressure with the 10-year yield rising to the highest level since 2014.
For FX markets, rising Chinese funding cost could hurt the manufacturing activities across the nation, leading to weaker demand on commodities.  This is not good news to the Aussie dollar.

Our Picks
EUR/USD – Slightly bearish.
This pair may drop to last week’s low near 1.1575 again.
 eurusd-h1-fullerton-markets-limited-2.png

AUD/USD – Slightly bearish.
China’s determination on deleveraging may increase downward pressure on the Aussie, this pair may drop towards 0.7630 this week.
  audusd-h1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAU/USD (Gold) – Slightly bearish.
Gold is in a downtrend as seen in H1 chart. We expect price to fall towards 1264 this week.
xauusd-h1-fullerton-markets-limited.png  

Top News This Week (GMT+8 time zone)
Euro Zone: CPI y/y. Tuesday 31st October, 6pm.
We expect figures to come in at 1.6% (previous figure was 1.5%).
US: Nonfarm payrolls. Friday 3rd November, 8.30pm.
We expect figures to come in at 280k (previous figure was -33k).

Sunday, 22 October 2017

ECB may announce QE unwinding plan this week, buy EUR/USD?
Recent gains in dollar may end soon if ECB hints QE unwinding plan this week
The dollar index started to rebound since early last month. One of the main reasons was ECB President Mario Draghi showed no rush to tighten monetary policy. Many traders took profit on their EUR/USD long positions when the pair reached the key level of 1.20. However, risk of “ECB to tighten soon” cannot be ignored this week. If that happens, dollar could end its recent uptrend as early as this week.
The dollar index is worth watching as markets prepare for the ECB meeting and the Fed meeting the following week. The index appeared to get a boost in past few days after the US House voted for tax legislation and continued hawkish language from the Fed officials. Still, the index remained below 94 as of midday Friday, partly due to unclear ECB policy stance that limited the dollar-buying positions.
At the press conference last month, Draghi sent mixed signals about when the ECB might begin lowering its monthly purchases. European inflation in September remained below the ECB’s target, which could pressure the ECB to continue its stimulus. However, Draghi may respond to Europe’s general economic improvement by announcing a drop in the monthly asset purchase program this week, to be implemented next year. There were some talks in the FX market that ECB may announce a decrease in monetary expansion volume to 30 billion euro from the current 60 billion euro in this week's meeting, and the ECB will extend their stimulus program until the end of 2018. If that happens, EUR/USD could surge towards 1.19 and pressure dollar index to dip below 92.
We also need to keep an eye on the bond market this week, to see if any words from Draghi pushing the bond yield higher.  Hawkish ECB could put pressure on US bond prices, sending yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year yield had begun moving up ahead of the ECB meeting, reaching 2.4% last Friday, the highest since July. However, the key factor driving EUR/USD exchange rates is the German-US sovereign bond yield spread. This will be one of the most reliable gauges to predict the direction of the upcoming EUR/USD moves. If the German-US bond yield spread narrows after the ECB meeting, EUR/USD is likely to move higher.

Our Picks
EUR/USD – Slightly bullish.
This pair may rise towards 1.1830 ahead of ECB meeting, as Draghi may hint stimulus unwinding plan. 
 eurusd-h1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

USD/JPY – Slightly bearish.
This pair overshot this morning on Abe’s victory. USD/JPY may retrace to 112.60 in later days. 
 usdjpy-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAG/USD (Silver) – Slightly bullish.
We expect price to rise towards 17.30 this week.
xagusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAU/USD (Gold) – Slightly bullish.
We expect price to rise towards 1290 this week. 
 xauusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

Top News This Week (GMT+8 time zone)
UK: GDP q/q. Wednesday 25th October, 4.30pm.
We expect figures to come in at 0.2% (previous figure was 0.3%).
Euro Zone: Monetary policy meeting. Thursday 26th October, 7.45pm.
We expect ECB to keep benchmark lending rate at 0% unchanged.

Saturday, 21 October 2017

Huge sell-off in kiwi dollar unlikely to stay, buy NZD/USD at dips?
New Zealand dollar largely sold off after Jacinda Ardern became New Zealand’s youngest prime minister in more than 150 years. We expect the sell-off to be short-term.

  • For past political events such as Brexit and US election, pound and dollar dropped initially, but recovered quickly after that.

  • Moves in kiwi today is not much different from the pound and dollar moves mentioned above. We do not think RBNZ will adjust their monetary policy based on the news today.

  • On the technical side, we think NZD/USD is likely to be supported at 0.70 for now.
 
nzdusd-d1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

China 3Q GDP could reach 6.9%, buy AUD/USD?
China 3Q GDP could beat consensus which stands at 6.8%, any number above that could send AUD/USD higher.
  • 3Q GDP data will be released on 19 October, 10am (GMT +8).
  • Despite some monthly high-frequency data suggested 3Q GDP could be at 6.8%, actual data could reach 6.9% for some reasons.
  • Any number above 6.8% may suggest China will continue to put “deleveraging” at priority.
  • Local bonds yield may edge higher if deleveraging is the main economic objective in 2018. Such scenario will drive Shanghai stocks higher and higher Chinese stocks are likely to influence Aussie dollar higher.
  • AUD/USD may be heading towards 0.7920 if China 3Q GDP reaches 6.9% or higher.
 
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Fed positive outlook could boost the dollar this week. Sell Gold?
Below-estimate US data could be purely due to bad weather, not driven by economic fundamentals
US dollar recovered from a sell-off against a basket of currencies after a lower-than-expected inflation report. After all, CPI data is above 2% for the first time since April. Together with Yellen’s speech on US economic outlook, US dollar could be an attractive asset now.
CPI last month grew 2.2% y/y, while some traders were expecting the report at 2.3%. The jump in September was due to soaring gasoline prices after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma caused production disruptions at Gulf Coast area oil refineries. Meanwhile, US retail sales rose 1.6%, less than the expected 1.7%.
Over the weekend, Fed Chair Janet Yellen painted a bright outlook for the US economy and inflation prospect in coming months.  She said the impact of the recent hurricanes would likely slow economic growth slightly, but only temporarily.  The economy should rebound by year-end. In other words, we think she was passing this message to the market: “The central bank is about to raise the interest rate for a third time this year, and the timing could be December.”
Based on recent high-frequency data, we think US economy has slowed slightly in the third quarter because of the hurricanes, but growth is likely to rebound in the current quarter.

World focusing on China congress meeting this week
China’s communist party congress kicks off this week. It is held once every five years. Without analysing the political changes, key things to watch will be clues about monetary policy, capital controls and state-owned enterprise reform. President Xi’s second term should be a continuation of the last five years, with state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and debt deleveraging topping the macro priorities. Cutting debt would be helpful for China equities. Any rhetoric emphasising SOE restructuring could spark speculative buying of groups in steel, electricity, chemicals and other sectors where mergers are expected. We think such outcome will benefit the Aussie in near term.

Our Picks
AUD/USD – Slightly bullish.
This pair may rise towards 0.7940, as investors react to potentially sound China economic data this week. 
 audusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

USD/JPY – Slightly bullish.
This pair may rise towards 112.80 after Yellen offered clues on more hikes to come. 
 usdjpy-d1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAG/USD (Silver) – Slightly bearish.
We expect price to drop towards 17.00 this week.
xagusd-h4-fullerton-markets-limited.png

XAU/USD (Gold) – Slightly bearish.
We expect price to fall towards 1290 this week. 
 xauusd-h1-fullerton-markets-limited.png

Top News This Week (GMT+8 time zone)
New Zealand: CPI q/q. Tuesday 17th October, 5.45am.
We expect figures to come in at 0.5% (previous figure was 0.0%).
China: GDP y/y. Thursday 19th October, 10am.
We expect figures to come in at 6.8% (previous figure was 6.9%).

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